Apple Analyst Is Already Panning The iPhone 16, Predicts Big Decline In iPhone Shipments

Ming-Chi Kuo, a prominent analyst at TF International Securities who often focuses on Apple, has a dour outlook for the company’s upcoming iPhone 16. Kuo lays out several challenges that Apple’s smartphones will face once they release, including the increasing prevalence of AI along with changes in what prospective customers are wanting out of their devices when it comes to their design.

AI will be a big selling point for several smartphone makers this year, for example the Samsung Galaxy S24 with its Galaxy AI. According to Kuo, Samsung expects to see a bump in demand due to the AI integration in its phones. Kuo says that “Samsung has revised up the shipments of the Galaxy S24 series in 2024 by 5–10%” because of the “higher-than-expected demand due to the high integration of GenAI functions.” Meanwhile, Apple has revised down the amount of iPhone 15 units it expects to move for the first half of 2024.


The other challenge Apple faces is the ever-changing tastes of phone buyers, with many now interested in foldable devices. This shift will especially be felt by the company in the Chinese market, where Kuo says that there is an “increasing preference for foldable phones among high-end users as their first choice for phone replacement.” These are the types of buyers Apple needs in China because of their devices’ high price tags, so it makes sense that shipments to that market have declined by 30-40% from last year.

The iPhone 16 will have an uphill battle as the phone will likely be unable to address either of the shifts happening in the market. While an Apple foldable has often been rumored, the chatter around this happening has greatly declined with some even saying that it just isn’t going to be thing. Moreover, the likelihood of Apple being able to integrate AI into iOS in time for a release later his year is low. Maybe some lower prices to entice buyers? Hopefully!